Iraq
Give Saddam Hussein credit for playing a poor hand very well.
In response to President Bush's UN speech, the Iraqi regime announced today that it would "allow" the return of weapons inspectors without conditions. This was communicated via a letter delivered by hand to Kofi Annan.
Several things are key here: 1) the letter was delivered to Kofi Annan, and not the Security Council (Annan has proven to be sympathetic to Iraq's cause); 2) the letter states that Iraq is "ready to discuss" practical arrangements towards the return of inspectors (in other words, it's not exactly without conditions), 3) the letter states that the decision to allow the return of inspectors is to "remove any doubts that Iraq still possesses weapons of mass destruction" (that's purposely worded to allow Iraq wiggle room, since much of the concern their pursuit of weapons additional to whatever they may still possess).
This is a non-starter for the United States. President Bush's UN speech made clear that the U.S. would no longer tolerate Saddam Hussein's flaunting of more than a dozen U.N. resolutions, not all of which deal with weapons inspections. Bush's powerful UN speech was NOT about weapons inspections, but about imposing a set of conditions that Saddam Hussein could not accept without effectively giving up his regime (as Orrin Judd continues to point out). It was masterful because it put both Saddam Hussein and the UN on the spot.
The reason I say that Iraq is playing a poor hand very well is because Saddam Hussein no doubt thinks that negotiating with the UN for a few weeks or months will buy him enough time for U.S. resolve to peter out, which has pretty much been the case since the first Gulf War was terminated prematurely. I think Saddam Hussein understands very well that President Bush's UN speech was about much more than weapons inspectors, and underestimates the President's resolve to see this through. By next year, I think Saddam Hussein will have joined a select group of other political opponents who underestimated George Bush (namely, Ann Richards, John McCain, and Al Gore).
The diplomatic maneuvering over the next few days should prove interesting. But really, Vice-President Cheney anticipated what was coming over the weekend, and these comments are instructive:
The test isn't just inspections. The test is compliance on all resolutions. I think there's some 16 of them, going back to 1990 and '91. And that's what has to happen. He's got to meet the test of abiding by those resolutions. I'd say inspections may be a part of that, but they were only a piece of 687 originally. So he's got a lot of work to do to come in to compliance. I don't know whether or not he can.
(09-18-02 Update) Ben Henick comments.
[Posted at 19:55 CST on 09/16/02] [Link]
