Venezuela

Deposed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez

Reports are starting to filter out of Venezuela that Chavez is history.

I pointed out two months ago that Chavez would be toast if he lost the support of both the military and the people. Popular revolt has been brewing for a while, but it now appears that Chavez has lost the support of the military (who have apparently refused to put down the popular revolt).

This is probably actually good news. I was growing worried that in order to try to win popular support as well as his ongoing battle over control of PDVSA, Chavez might do something really goofy like renationalize the oil industry. If the military is truly taking over the regime from him, I doubt very much it will go that route.

(04-12-2002 Update) Oil markets have reacted positively to the news (and to the appointment of Pedro Carmona to head the interim government), as expected.

[Posted at 23:12 CST on 04/11/02] [Link]