28 July 2001
Malaysia and Unrelated Nasties (not in that order)
I'm still fighting the gastro-intestinal nasties (too much information?), which has left me grouchy. I forced myself out for a little while last night simply because I was the driving force behind pushing several groups of newbies into seeing 24 Count (and thinking I would surely be OVER this crap by then), and couldn't easily back out, but I was NOT my normal self as yesterday was fairly rough. Thankfully, seeing 45 minutes of music didn't require much interaction on my part, and I could sit in the dark corner and listen to what was an excellent show (the dark corner also covering up the green color my face had taken on yesterday).
I don't think I can manage the Galveston expedition today, however. Remnants of nasties combined with 30-minute drive and Galveston heat/humidity is not a combination I'm willing to try out today, even though I feel somewhat better than yesterday. It's a shame, as it's the only opportunity I've had (and may have for a while) to meet net acquaintances Jaffo and Diana.
* * * *
On a COMPLETELY unrelated note, I have been working this afternoon on some analysis for Malaysia that has not had the benefit of my brain at 100% the last couple of days (so I feel obligated to make up the time to work -- I'm disgustingly honest, aren't I?), and made an interesting connection. At the height of the Asian economic crisis in 1998, Malaysia completely disregarded IMF advice and pegged its currency to the dollar. Most economists denounced the move as a doomed attempt to stem capital outflows. Those economists were shocked when Malaysia showed strong economic growth in 1999, since they predicted things would get much worse. But Malaysia didn't really impose capital controls of the sort intimated by most IMF-influenced economists; what it did was back its currency with a commodity of tangible value. Not gold, mind you, but the dollar -- which under Greenspan has arguably been CLOSE to gold (as close as any floating fiat currency has ever been). Until recent times, that is. Readers of this site and my comments elsewhere know that I think we are experiencing deflation that is entirely related to the Economic Czar's (see the Glossary) refusal to target a gold (or precious commodity) price band for the dollar. And that spells trouble for Malaysia if it keeps its peg to the dollar, since it means that investment capital has become more scarce, relatively speaking. This means economic slowdown (perhaps even mild recession if the Economic Czar does NOT adjust monetary policy ) in the United States -- but REAL PROBLEMS for a developing economy like Malaysia's.
The political component is even more intriguing: I think Mahathir instituted the ringgit/dollar peg without fully understanding the significance of what he was doing, and thereby blundered into success. I suspect he will maintain the peg without fully understanding the future implications. His -- and his party's -- popularity is already fading, and the pro-Islamic opposition is surging. A significant economic downturn could lead to a truly historic change of leadership in 2004 elections. Now I just need to think through the likelihood of that scenario.
In all, not a bad bit of speculation by a sick kid looking back over some earlier analysis and rethinking the problem.
[Posted @ 03:48 PM CST]
