Israel

For two days now, I've had a nasty muscle cramp running from my lats up to my neck, causing pain when I turn my neck very much at all.  I've had this happen once before, as a result of slightly bad form during the weight training (form matters!).  The pain is worse today, probably as a result of spending the day writing up a political risk report on Israel from scratch.  That's given far more important people than me severe pains in their necks.  Nevertheless, our five year scenarios break out something like this:

50% Chance that Sharon wins elections, forms either a Likud/Labor unity government or a Likud/Shas/other religious party government, and sees that government fall in a year's time, at which point Bibi Netanyahu reclaims leadership of Likud and runs (probably successfully) against Labor (probably Yossi Beilin).

30% Chance that Sharon wins elections, forms either of the governments mentioned above, but like Menachim Begin (another bellicose Likud military man), actually is able to forge a tolerable peace agreement and hold together his government until Knesset elections in 2003.

10% Chance that Barak (or a last-minute stand in) wins elections, and continues to muddle along until his government falls and his political career is ended.

10% Chance that whoever wins (likely Sharon), some precipitating event takes place that draws Iraq/Syria into "defending" their Palestinian "brethren," maybe a missile gets lobbed, and all hell breaks loose.  Blar!

Of course, the analysis backing these scenarios is what is important.  I think most people would find my assessment of the threat of war surprising, but I think there the threat of regional Arab-Israeli war is less today than it was, say, 20 years ago.  That being said, how strategic policy is formulated today has great implications for whether or not that will be the case, say, 3-5 years from now.  And a growing Iraqi/Syrian alliance is problematic for Israel as well as other Arab nations (and, indirectly, for US foreign policymakers).  At least there are some grownups thinking about these things in the US government now.

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