Largent
Eugene Volokh speculates on the impact the state question on cockfighting in Oklahoma might have had on the governor's race.
No doubt, some of Brad Henry's support came from rural Oklahomans who were opposed to SQ 687 (turnout was especially high in eastern Oklahoma -- I noted their sentiment on the issue back in October), but Henry's natural base of support would have been rural Oklahoma Democrats regardless.
And SQ 687 was a constant. It doesn't explain why Steve Largent's huge lead in this race simply evaporated against what was weak competition. The variable that better explains it is Largent's monumental "bull----" gaffe described in the Edmond Sun article linked by Volokh, and associated behavior, which was pounded home the last few weeks of the campaign by Gary Richardson's extremely effective attack ad.
Largent's behavior struck a nerve with Oklahomans, Richardson's ad inflamed it, and Largent's lead evaporated. *poof*
That Largent, the seasoned pol in this race, would make such a blunder is surprising.
(11-09-02) A poll by the Carl Albert center indicates that independent Gary Richardson actually pulled more votes from Henry than Largent, and that many voters made their minds up late. The state lottery issue seemed to figure heavily, according to the poll. Hard to tell from this article where cockfighting figured, and it doesn't appear the question of Largent's 9/11 gaffe(s) was polled. But as a surrogate, Largent polled poorly on the question of which candidate was most like Oklahomans (consistent with my thesis that people were turned off by Largent in the last few weeks of the campaign, with the help of Richardson's advertising).
(11-09-02 Update 2) Taranto picked up on the Volokh post also, but gets the city name of EDMOND's newspaper wrong. Nothing like it when big journalism does a blog, huh?
[Posted at 22:49 CST on 11/08/02] [Link]
