Ron Kirk
Earlier this summer, there was a time when Ron Kirk seemed to have the momentum over John Cornyn in the race to fill the retiring Phil Gramm's Senate seat. I think now the momentum has swung back to Cornyn and that the GOP will keep this seat.
At least three things are working against Kirk right now. First and foremost is the war on terror, and specifically Iraq. Even after President Bush's effective speech to the UN, Senate leaders like Tom Daschle can't make up their minds whether to support the President, and after a summer of complaining that Congress must be consulted, now seem to prefer that Congressional debate and a resolution be put off indefinitely (they say until after elections, but that's not what they mean). It's not going to be put off until after elections, and that puts Ron Kirk in a difficult spot. His instincts seem to be against moving on Iraq, and no coherent Democratic position has emerged. Owen Courreges points to this Chron article that describes how Kirk has tried to turn the issue around by arguing that minorities will be hurt disproportionately by any U.S. action against Iraq. This may bolster one segment of Kirk's base, as Owen suggests, but it's not going to be a winner politically in this race. The race is too close, and there's too much support for Bush on this one.
The second issue is going to be Priscilla Owen and judicial appointments more broadly. Cornyn used this issue effectively against Kirk before the Bush speech to the UN, and even though it's a second-tier issue now, it's still a potential problem area for Kirk if Cornyn paints him as a shill for pro-abortion forces instead of a voice for Texas sensibilities (I'm not saying that's the case necessarily -- I'm just saying that it was and may still be a potential danger area for Kirk).
And finally, these two issues illustrate Kirk's larger problem if the Cornyn campaign is smart, which is this: Kirk may indeed be a typically moderate Texas Democrat, but isn't there a danger that if he's sent to D.C., he'll be less than independent on issues he'll likely face in the Senate? That is to say, is he going to be taking his cues on important matters like the coming action against Iraq and judicial appointments from Tom Daschle, instead of behaving as a moderate might be expected to behave? Ron Kirk's fundraising trips that saw him hanging out with East coast and West coast liberals could hurt him in this respect (yes, I know candidates have to raise money and Cornyn surely has relied upon conservative groups, but Texas leans conservative).
This race is proving to be a lot more interesting than I thought it would be. I'm not the biggest Cornyn fan in the world (understatement) and don't think he's run a great campaign so far (he almost seems to think he should be anointed Senator). But the timidity of Senate Democrats on Iraq has given him a good issue to play with, as has the Owen rejection -- both relatively bad breaks for Kirk, who has run a good campaign. The question remains, will Cornyn manage to take advantage?
[Posted at 14:23 CST on 09/14/02] [Link]
