Missouri's Senate Race

I've seen zero national coverage of Missouri's U.S. Senate primary, which was held last week. On the surface, there were no real surprises: Jean Carnahan won on the Democratic side, and Jim Talent won on the Republican side.

But digging into the numbers is really interesting. Jean Carnahan's opponent pulled nearly 20% of the vote. That's a real shocker, because he's basically a nuisance candidate who didn't even run a real campaign. Indeed, as of the primary date, he had been in jail for seven weeks on a felony theft charge!

On the Republican side, Talent ran strongly against minor challengers, and looks to be a formidable opponent for the less-than-impressive Senator from Missouri.

However, my friend Tom Hanna (PubliusMO?) reports that turnout could be a problem for the GOP this fall. The heavily Republican parts of the state have many races with no Democratic opponent, which may depress fall turnout, and various tax initiatives were on the primary ballot, which may have artificially boosted turnout among fiscally minded GOPers.

Carnahan is definitely vulnerable, and Talent would be a super replacement, but turnout may well work against him.

[Posted at 23:04 CST on 08/11/02] [Link]