Leaks

Den Beste thinks this leak of a classified document on nuclear strategy comes intentionally from the Bush Administration. That's plausible, but I lean in slightly in another direction.

Without seeing the document itself, it's hard to know exactly what's in it (Arkin's assessment is here, but it should be noted that Arkin's view of deterrence theory is colored by his opposition to nuclear weapons). We do know that major players in the Bush DoD, unlike the major players in the previous DoD, do favor a nuclear warfighting strategy, and believe that a nuclear deterrent is only effective if credible, which means you must figure out when and where you are willing to use nukes, especially tactical nukes. For example, my old grad school mentor, the current assistant secretary for international security policy, is a longtime advocate of the nuclear warfighting strategy (as is his mentor, Bill Van Cleave), and discussed the nuclear posture review in January.

But there hasn't really been a prominent Democrat who's an advocate of a serious nuclear warfighting strategy since Scoop Jackson. It wouldn't shock me if some Congressional Democrat -- maybe even Tom Daschle's office, since he's taken a pounding recently on war issues -- leaked this document, in the attempt to gain some elusive political traction. I hope that's not the case, because it would not reflect well on the Dems. But I think it's also a plausible scenario.

[Posted at 11:37 CST on 03/09/02] [Link]