29 October 2001
Latest BCS
Okay, so I'm better at predicting things like election outcomes and coup attempts than the college football BCS rankings!
After all the upsets on Saturday, I predicted the BCS would look like this: 1) Nebraska, 2) Miami, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Texas, 5) Michigan, 6) Florida
Instead, the latest BCS rankings are: 1) Nebraska, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Miami, 4) Michigan, 5) Texas, 6) Stanford
I knew Nebraska would be #1. Miami's weak schedule and relatively weak conference continue to hurt them, despite their undefeated status. Oklahoma's tough schedule (especially the quality win against Texas) and tough conference boosted them just percentage points above an arguably better, undefeated team (Miami). Michigan's strength of schedule boosted them above Texas, which I thought unlikely, and I'm honestly surprised that Michigan's schedule actually ranks as highly as it does. Texas is about where I thought they would be because of only one loss and a tough schedule in a tough conference. Stanford is the surprise to me, and I obviously underestimated the value of their quality win over UCLA on Saturday. However, I don't think playing in the PAC-10 is ultimately going to give them as many quality wins as Florida if both teams continue to win, so Florida (ranked 8th this week) may very well jump over Stanford by the end of the season, losses being equal.
Obviously, Miami has a legitimate beef at being undefeated and still trailing Oklahoma in the BCS standings. Then again, Miami's athletic director knows the weakness of the Big East in football, should know how much that hurts the team's BCS ranking, and could schedule a better non-conference schedule to avoid the problem, so I don't have that much sympathy. I'm sort of reminded of K-State playing so many pitiful games outside the Big 12 over the last few years, and then wondering why pollsters didn't take them all that seriously. In any case, one of the two teams ahead of Miami cannot win the rest of its games (since OU and Nebraska will meet in the Big 12 title game if both go undefeated), so if Miami wins the rest of its games, it will play for #1 in the Rose Bowl.
As an Oklahoma fan, I'm pleased with Oklahoma's chances. It's rare for a college team to lose a game on Saturday, and know at the end of the same day that winning the rest of its games will pretty much wrap up a national championship. Unfortunately, the injury situation makes it highly unlikely. The offensive line is really banged up, and both quarterbacks are hurt (Jason White, the more impressive of the two, may be lost for the season) and have been erratic anyway, in an offense that depends upon quick, smart decisions by the QB. Last year, the injury bug didn't hit the Sooners; that may be the difference in winning a national championship and finishing in the Top 10 this year. With memories of the John Blake era still fresh, nobody in Oklahoma is going to complain.
[Posted @ 10:58 PM CST]
