Did The Texans Choke?
For months now, there's been something of a consensus that Reggie Bush would be the first pick in the NFL draft, despite the noise from some Vince Young boosters.
In the last week or two, the Texans started carrying on about taking Mario Williams, and those who reported those rumblings almost always reported it in the context of the Texans being concerned about paying Reggie Bush the sort of money that a pick who's #1 on almost every team's draft board was likely to command.
Yesterday, the Texans announced they had inked a deal with Mario Williams, and they drafted him today.
It may well turn out that Williams turns into Ed "Too Tall" Jones or Lee Roy Selmon or Julius Peppers. If so, the pick will look pretty smart.
And it's true that William's combine numbers look really really impressive. For a big man, he can really move, and he can really jump. And that's all well and good, I suppose, if he plans on competing with other NFL defensive ends to take part in a ballet. The Texans expect him to pressure the quarterback, though. And once we get past all those cool combine numbers, there's some doubt whether he's going to do that consistently. He certainly didn't do it consistently at NC State. He had some good games, and he had some games in which he disappeared.
In contrast, Reggie Bush was a threat to score every time he touched the ball.
So how did the Texans decide Williams was their guy?
Money had to play a role. Given the stories that mentioned the Texans' doubts about the Bush negotiations, the Texans' assurances that money was not an issue simply are not believable. Money may not have been the deciding factor, but it was almost certainly a factor.
As for other factors... typically, NFL teams use the draft to: 1) fill specific needs or 2) draft the best player available.
There was consensus (although perhaps not unanimity) among NFL teams that Reggie Bush was the best player available in this draft. And as mentioned above, he was the more consistent college player. Interestingly, Reggie Bush would have also filled a need on the team (a playmaker running back as opposed to the average Domanick Davis, and a running back who could split out and create mismatches in the passing game -- mismatches the Texans have not been able to create).
What need does Mario Williams fill? We hear from proponents of the move that he generically fills the "pass rush" need. But John McClain had this great observation earlier:
Williams' best position is left end, but the Texans gave Baltimore free agent Anthony Weaver a $12.5 million signing bonus to play that position. Williams will play right end, probably forcing Antwan Peek — now their best pass rusher — back to outside linebacker.
So the Texans drafted a guy they're going to have to play out of position because of the left defensive end they signed (for reasonably big bucks) in the offseason?
In other words, the Texans didn't draft to need, AND they didn't draft the best player available.
I would say the Texans choked with their top pick (of course, if Williams turns out to be another Ed Jones or Lee Roy Selmon or Julius Peppers, we can all have a good laugh at how wrong I was), and that they choked in part because Bob McNair got too concerned with money and let two great potential offensive playmakers (Bush and Vince Young) get away to teams of interest locally (Bud Adams' Titans and the New Orleans Saints).
Len Pasquerelli wrote the following yesterday after the Texans announced the signing of Williams:
Bad enough the loyal fans of Houston have had to suffer through the stigma of four straight losing campaigns, an average of just 4½ victories per year and a team that managed just half as many wins in its fourth season as it did in its expansion year of 2002. Now the fans are saddled with a team suffering from astigmatism.
There's a reason that only one expansion team that has entered the league since 1976, the Bucs, won fewer games in its first four seasons than the Texans have earned, and we saw why on Friday night when Houston bypassed tailback Reggie Bush with the top pick in the draft and opted for defensive end Mario Williams instead.
Some teams try to exercise foresight with such threshold football decisions. Houston, on the other hand, apparently makes them blindfolded.
By the way, the Bucs, despite winning only 17 games from 1976-79, advanced to the NFC Championship Game in their fourth season. The Texans, with a lot more advantages than those woebegone Bucs ever had in terms of additional draft choices and deals cut with cap-heavy franchises eager to dump veterans with bloated contracts, won two games in their fourth year.
Yeah, but they're going into this season with two killer left defensive ends!
Oh well. Go Cowboys!
Posted by Kevin Whited @ 04/29/06 22:21 | Sports | Technorati
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Comments
When I read your previous post on the meme that the Texans overpay players, the first thought that came to my mind was whether this notion was actually put out by the Texans to excuse contract negotiations with the first draft pick going awry.
"It's not that the Texan management is weak, it's that they *usually* overpay players and so they wanted to be careful and responsible."
This certainly does noting to rebut that theory.
Posted by R. Alex @ 23:41 on 04/29/06
I've seen this movie before. The Mike Mamula Story.
I'm pretty mad. There's no way I'm gonna give Bob McNair a dollar this year.
Posted by Evan @ 01:11 on 04/30/06
Dissenting opinion:
People forget that last year the only thing worse than the Texans offense was the Texans defense. During the off-season they made a lot of moves to bolster the offense (Moulds, Putzier etc.) and during the draft they paid attention of the defense and offensive line (Carr is probably happy about that).
The Williams pick is not "sexy" and its not Bush or Young, but it MAY just be the thing they needed to try and get some pressure on opposing QB's next year.
You said it yourself, the Texans best pass rusher was Peek. (ugh)
S.
Posted by Sedosi @ 09:11 on 04/30/06
Are you just playing devil's advocate, Sedosi?
Posted by Evan @ 13:20 on 05/01/06
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