Happy Earth Day!
Here's some fun Earth Day reading for ya'll:
Index of Environmental Indicators 2006 (Steven F. Hayward)
On Earth Day, hope for the environment (Brad Knickerbocker, Christian Science Monitor)
As the US celebrates Earth Day this Saturday, there is good news to report on the environment for a change.
• Air pollution has decreased 50 percent overall, with sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides dropping steadily.
• Lakes in the Northeast are recovering from their earlier dousing with acid rain.• Endangered species, including bald eagles, wolves, and grizzly bears, have rebounded.
• Cars no longer burn leaded gasoline.
• Ozone-destroying chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been generally phased out.
It's in sharp contrast to the first Earth Day in 1970 when there were signs of serious trouble.
Scientists cool outlook on global warming (Jennifer Harper, Washington Times)
Global warming may not be as dramatic as some scientists have predicted.
Using temperature readings from the past 100 years, 1,000 computer simulations and the evidence left in ancient tree rings, Duke University scientists announced yesterday that "the magnitude of future global warming will likely fall well short of current highest predictions."
Supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, the Duke researchers noted that some observational studies predicted that the Earth's temperature could rise as much as 16 degrees in this century because of an increase in carbon dioxide or other so-called greenhouse gases.
The Duke estimates show the chances that the planet's temperature will rise even by 11 degrees is only 5 percent, which falls in line with previous, less-alarming predictions that meteorologists made almost three decades ago.
Climate of Uncertainty: Why global warming is back in the headlines (Steven F. Hayward, Weekly Standard)
If there is any subject more certain than the federal budget process to bring on eye-glaze, it is global warming and the drearily repetitive argument about the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The issue combines the worst of wonky numerology (parts per million of various gases, complex computer models, opaque cost-benefit analyses), an alphabet soup of unctuous international bureaucracies (IPCC, UNFCCC, SRES, TAR, USGCRP, etc., etc.), and the incessant braying of interest groups. No wonder Al Gore loves it so much. Yet the issue, seemingly stuck in a rut for almost two decades, is starting to shake loose and head in new directions.
How do you go about sorting out sense from nonsense? Very few people who follow closely the subject of climate change argue that there's nothing to it. There is unanimity that the planet has warmed by about 1 degree over the last century. Just about everyone agrees that the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels cannot continue forever. That's where the agreement ends. The range of possible temperature increase over the next century is fairly wide in the official forecasts, from 1.4 degrees Celsius on the low side, which might not be difficult to cope with, to 5.8 degrees Celsius on the high side, which would mean major environmental problems for the planet. How probable is any point along the distribution? For reasons having to do with the cascading statistical uncertainties of the thousands of variables in computer climate models, we can't assign a probability to any narrower range of temperature forecasts, though very clever people are trying.
So for most of the last decade we have been playing a back and forth game with signs and wonders that are offered as confirmation that catastrophic global warming is well under way. But these tend to be as controversial as the computer climate models. As good as our measurement techniques are, there is still large disagreement about basic facts. Are the polar ice caps melting or growing thicker? Both, depending on what data set you consult. Is the last decade the hottest in 2,000 years? You need a flak jacket to survive the crossfire on this one. Can variance in solar radiation account for some or most of the warming we've experienced to date? Better put on a second flak jacket. Do clouds warm or cool the planet? Both, and understanding the balance between their conflicting effects remains a huge problem for climate models. Are ocean temperatures rising and Gulf Stream currents changing? Probably, but we need better data to be sure. Will hurricanes get worse? Get a helmet to go with your flak jacket, and put FEMA on speed-dial. Aren't scientists overwhelmingly in agreement that the science is "settled"? Well, yes, except for the hundreds of scientists who've signed various statements and resolutions saying we lack adequate mastery of the subject.
At this point even most people with a scientific background throw up their hands and say, "Call me back in 50 years if I need to turn up my air conditioning." It does no good, as global warming skeptics and many official climate science reports often do, to call for reducing "uncertainty" in climate science. The uncertainties of climate change have less to do with the enormous complexity of the linkages of the various earth sciences comprising the issue, and more to do with the stakes involved. With near-term global greenhouse gas suppression costs called for at Kyoto calculated in the multiple trillions of dollars ($37 trillion according to one widely accepted estimate), political considerations magnify the importance of nailing down uncertainties beyond the ability of science to do so. In fact, with a subject as sprawling as climate change, the disciplinary diversity of science is going to magnify rather than narrow uncertainties.
Progressive Forum hosts Al Gore Weds., June 7 (Perry Dorrell, HoustonDemocrats.com)
Al Gore, the 45th Vice President of the United States, will present a visually stunning multimedia presentation called “An Inconvenient Truth”, which focuses on the urgent need to solve global warming. His presentation is a personal distillation of his 30 years of involvement with the issue, an inspiring bipartisan message which confronts the impact of warming on our global civilization and offers solutions that strengthen our economy. Mr. Gore’s address in Houston, the world’s energy center, coincides with the launch of his new book, also called An Inconvenient Truth, which will be on sale at the event and which Mr. Gore will sign after his speech.
Posted by Kevin Whited @ 04/22/06 12:05 | Outdoors | Technorati
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The weather should cooperate for Al Gore's presentation. It's unlikely to be snowing in Houston on June 7th. =)
Posted by anne @ 07:47 on 04/23/06
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