The Sky Is Not Falling, II
Fossil fuels' demise oversold: Boring fact is oil not soon tapped out (Scott W. Tinker, Houston Chronicle)
PEAK oil.
As the U.S. Senate debates the national energy policy, many are aware of the hype surrounding this academic construct. A Web search of "peak oil" turns up an array of experts who believe that a pending peak in world oil production will soon lead to global economic collapse.
In their rosier scenarios, experts predict sky-high gasoline prices that will crush oil-dependent economies like the United States. In their darker forecasts, they say people won't be able to obtain food, heat their homes or live securely during a period of global famine and resource wars.
All of this might be entertaining were it another subject for a Hollywood film, but it has become almost a subculture (and cottage industry). For those who wonder if the global production of oil will peak and begin to decline some day, the answer is yes, it will. The more pertinent question is: Should you care?
I sometimes call the Hubbert Peak geological enthusiasts cultists because some of them indeed offer up those "darker forecasts" mentioned by Tinker -- forecasts that are political and economic in nature, despite the fact that so much of their forecasting depends upon ignoring economics and politics. Tinker's op-ed is a fairly succinct rebuttal to Hubbert Peak geologists, although I'm not that enthusiastic about his generic endorsement of "planning and coordinated investment" (fine if he's referring to industry, not so fine if he's wanting centralized bureaucratic planning).
Posted by Kevin Whited @ 06/26/05 22:41 | Other | Technorati
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These people have never read _The Prize_. If they did, then they are bad at history.
Kevin, you are bright.
Posted by Smarter than them @ 02:54 on 06/27/05
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